European Commission, Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (CNECT), 2024.

A study commissioned by the European Commission highlights the significant potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to improve public sector services across the EU. The report emphasizes that AI can enhance citizen-government interactions, boost analytical capabilities, and increase efficiency in key areas such as healthcare, mobility, e-Government, and education. These sectors are identified as among the most ready for large-scale AI deployment, with applications ranging from autonomous vehicles and smart traffic systems to AI-driven healthcare solutions and education technologies.

European University Institute, De Vito, L., Radaelli, C. European University Institute, 2023.

Foresight can support policymakers to address long-term goals and navigate uncertainty in a context of poly- and perma-crisis. Common foresight methods like scenario planning and horizon scanning are commonly deployed to anticipate future risks and opportunities, and test interventions against different trends and possible futures. However, as governments and organisations develop their foresight functions, there is a risk of seeing foresight only as a set of tools or guidance, or as an extra administrative step. Instead, the transformational power of foresight lies in challenging conventional thinking and assumptions at all stages of policymaking. We argue that, to enable a culture of anticipation, organisations should go beyond guidance and embed foresight as a practice throughout the policy cycle. In so doing, it is important that organisations pay particular attention to inclusive and appropriate participation of multiple actors and stakeholders.

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Mochan, A., Farinha, J., Bailey, G., Rodriguez, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.

European Committee of the Regions, European Committee of the Regions, 2024.

Strategic foresight is a future-oriented discipline that seeks to understand, anticipate, and address emerging challenges and opportunities, through systematic and structured identification and analysis of long-term trends, drivers of change, and potential disruptive developments that may shape the political, economic, social, and technological landscape. It is not about predicting the future; it is about exploring different possible futures that could arise, in order to better prepare for change.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Damen, M. European Parliament, 2023.

This analysis looks at the future of the EU and Ukraine, using a time horizon of 2035. It was launched in June 2022 as a Strategic Foresight Conversation, a few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The ensuing war has drastically changed all aspects of life in Ukraine, affects the EU in many significant ways and shifted pre-war geopolitical and geo-economic paradigms. The European Council decision of 24 June 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova added to the need for a long-term perspective on EU-Ukraine relations.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Farinha, J., Vesnic Alujevic, L., Alvarenga, A. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity today present major challenges in policymaking. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks and emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policymaking and preparedness. This report is a part of the project ‘Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation’ (ANTICIPINNOV), a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council (EIC).

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Bailey, G., Farinha, J., Mochan, A. and Pólvora, A., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with prioritysetting and decision-making.

European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Mattioli, R. and Malatras, A., European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, 2024.

The “ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030” study represents a comprehensive analysis and assessment of emerging cybersecurity threats projected for the year 2030. This collaborative endeavour, spearheaded by European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), has employed a structured and multidimensional methodology to assess, forecast, and prioritise potential threats. It was firstly published in 2022, and the current report is its second iteration which reassesses the previously identified top ten threats and respective trends whilst exploring the developments over the course of a year. Our aim was to reassess the results of the Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030, identify potential new trends/threats and understand how the previous trends developed over the course of the year.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

The publication is the report of a foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027) with early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making contributions – issues, trends, perspectives, ideas - that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. It presents a wide range of activities covering futures scenarios, and analyses of disruptive trends that may engender challenges and opportunities for Horizon Europe. It also reports on engagement activities wherein stakeholders and the public proposed ideas on how Horizon Europe could respond to the challenges and opportunities of the future.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Mendonça, S., Archibugi, D., Gerbrandy, A. and Tsipouri, L., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Big Tech wield unprecedented influence on production and consumption relations. Europe faces a number of epoch-making questions. Will the regulatory frameworks deliver? Should Big Tech be broken up or standards relaxed? Should national and supra-national authorities foster alternative ventures capable of operating at global scale and scope? Or should policy makers prioritise an economic fabric full of smaller enterprises that are locally creative and dynamic? This policy brief uses a scenario approach to sketch the implications of Big Tech for Europe’s future by 2040.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Bas, E., Barker, K., Claus, C., McHugh, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This policy brief aims to assist policy makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Knudsen, M., Caniëls, M., Dickinson, P., Hery, M. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

The European Green Deal aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, boost the economy through green technology, create sustainable industry and transport, and cut pollution. The green transition is seen as a game changer in the EU labour market alongside digitalisation and automation. Skill needs will change with impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. To get a better grasp on potential future outcomes, and better anticipate their potential policy implications, a set of future scenarios has been developed around the prospects for green technological leadership and socio-technical transition in Europe. R&I policy implications have been drawn from those scenarios.

European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Sarvaranta, L., Bravo-Biosca, A., De Marchi, B. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

This policy brief explores important trends for the future of science for policy in Europe and the challenges and opportunities that they present for the development of science for policy ecosystems in the European Union. On the background of an increasing prominence of science in public debates and an increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific advice, the policy brief explores trends that shape the practices and processes of information exchange between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe, and frame important challenges and opportunities for science for policy ecosystems in the EU.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Icardi, R., Gailey, N., Goujon, A. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Population projections provide a valuable toolbox for thinking about the implications of upcoming trends and shifts in population size and structure, which are crucial for understanding various global economic, environmental, societal, and geopolitical developments that significantly depend on human actions. As a result, gaining insights into the future of the global population, in terms of both size and composition, is essential for strategic policy formulation. Most national statistical offices regularly develop population projections. Additionally, some organizations implement population projections at the global level, employing a wide range of methods. In one way or another, these projections rely on expert opinions to come up with assumptions concerning future fertility, mortality, and migration, following various scenarios.

European Parliament, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Publication metadata
This fourth ESPAS Global Trends Report is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the future of Europe, its role in the world and its ability to adapt and change to meet fresh challenges and harness new opportunities. In common with other foresight studies, this report does not predict the future. Rather, it attempts to identify the key global trends, analyse their significance for Europe, assess the agency the European Union has to influence global thinking, and sets out some of the main strategic choices policymakers may be required to make — choices that will have a strong bearing on the kind of Europe we will live in by 2040. The report does not seek to offer policy prescriptions, nor does it approach the challenges we face through a particular political prism. Importantly, it does not represent the views or policies of any particular organisation involved in the process.

European Environment Agency, Governance in complexity – Sustainability governance under highly uncertain and complex conditions, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024

Publication metadata
The triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution is just one of many interconnected and mutually exacerbating socio‑economic crises currently challenging European and global societies. These accelerated and deeply interconnected crises challenge the conventional approach to governance in several ways. Firstly, previously well‑tested and effective tools and practices of problem‑solving are less suited to providing systemic solutions. This is demonstrated by the lack of progress towards sustainability: European policies have yet to produce more than mixed progress towards the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Similarly, the outlook for reaching the EU's long‑term vision of 'living well within the limits of the planet' is not encouraging. Secondly, failing to acknowledge and absorb the many different understandings of complex problems — and the inherent difficulties of governing multi‑faceted and systemic challenges — weakens the legitimacy of any transition toward sustainability. This can strain societal stability and cohesion, as is visible in several parts of Europe already.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Farinha, J., Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Hristova, M. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

The report presents the findings of a participatory technology foresight exercise that listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others.

European Economic and Social Committee, Agostinelli, D., Klakla, J., Kulesa, A. et al. European Economic and Social Committee, 2023.

Publication metadata
This study looks at the Conference of the Future of Europe’s (CoFoE) proposals on European democracy and the role of the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC). It explores different options for institutional reform of the EESC to best serve its purpose and increase citizens’ participation. To do this, the study examines different forms of participatory and deliberative practices, the current functions of the EESC, and the roles and structures of selected National Economic and Social Councils (NESCs).

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Lazarou, E., Bassot, E. and Stanicek, B., European Parliament, 2024.

Conflict is rarely confined to the geographical space in which wars take place. The increasingly global effects – human, material and political – of wars and conflicts make a view of the level of threats to peace, security and democracy around the world more important than ever. The 'Normandy Index' has presented an annual measurement of these threats since the 2019 Normandy Peace Forum. The results of the 2024 exercise suggest the level of threats to peace is the highest since the Index began, confirming declining trends in global security resulting from conflict, geopolitical rivalry, growing militarisation and hybrid threats. The findings of the 2024 exercise draw on data compiled in 2023-2024 to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's performance against a range of predetermined threats – across countries and regions.

European Committee of the Regions: Commission for Natural Resources, Maj, A., Wiktorow-Bojska, A. and Zubel, K., European Committee of the Regions, 2024.

Climate change is a key dominant trend across the territories of the European Union (EU) given the expected growing frequency of multiple climate change-induced hazards. Serious impacts on ecosystems, the economy, and human health and well-being will be observed as a result. Minimising the risks and impacts stemming from these extremes is therefore a priority for the EU, and for national and Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs).

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Macias Moy, D., Bisselink, B., Duteil, O. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

As part of the support JRC is providing DG ENV on the coming review (impact assessment and potential revision) of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), it is necessary to develop a future scenario in which the Directive is not changed but that consider all other elements (policy and socio-economic developments) that are expected to happen in the next decades. This scenario is named the ‘dynamic baseline’ and it should provide (once simulated with the appropriate modelling tools) the likely environmental conditions of EU marine regions in 2050 in the case of ‘no-revision’ of the MSFD. The environmental conditions under this scenario should be compared against those derived from the different ‘revision scenarios’ in which different elements of the MSFD are changed.

European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Cassingena Harper, J. Cassingena Harper, J.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

This Final Report outlines the current state of the play in relation to institutionalised R&I foresight and proposes a way forward for extending and strengthening R&I foresight in government. It showcases exemplary R&I foresight practice and related strategic processes, structures and capacities at EU level and in participating countries and beyond. It draws on these country cases to provide a guidance towards a handbook on tailored tools and approaches for applying R&I foresight in a range of contemporary policy contexts, including smart specialisation, mission-oriented policy, citizen engagement and twin transition and disruptions. The Report recommends coordinated efforts between Member States and the EU to invest in the enabling conditions for enhanced R&I foresight in government, in particular futures literacy and related foresight studies.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Muench, S., Stoermer, E. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. Foresight scenarios are a practical tool that can help improve decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. To increase preparedness for an uncertain future, the JRC facilitated a foresight process to develop four reference foresight scenarios. This participatory process was based on the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and engaged more than 100 experts. The reference foresight scenarios explore the global standing of the European Union in 2040.

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Muench, S., Whyte, J., Hauer, G., Maleville, A. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This study presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Education, Youth, Sport and Culture, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.

Opinion, European Economic and Social Committee, 2024.

European Economic and Social Committee opinion on the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on 2023 Strategic Foresight Report - Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Open Strategic Autonomy - COM(2023) 376 final.

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Vesnic-Alujevic, L. and Störmer, E., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This report summarises a pilot process of stress-testing policy options against a set of reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The goal of this report is to provide an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios. A set of reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 was used to stress-test five policy options and the baseline option, in relation to the EU policy initiative on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Fernandes, M., Heflich, A. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Stress-testing is a promising foresight policy tool that can support the design of EU policies able to withstand the shocks and challenges of both the present day and the years to come. This study explores how the European Parliament could use stress-tests to identify weak points in EU legislation and avenues for further EU action. The study draws on the findings of a stress-test of EU rail transport policy and recommendations from an expert practitioner of foresight and regulatory policy. It finds that stress-tests across different policy areas could boost the European Parliament's role as co-legislator in the European Union, especially in the agenda-setting and law-making phases of the legislative cycle.

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Carrara, S., Bobba, S., Blagoeva, D., Alves Dias, P. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

In order for the European Union to achieve the ambitious targets it has set for the energy and digital transitions and its defence and space agenda, it needs undisrupted access to critical raw materials and to many products which contain them. This foresight study presents a systematic and detailed analysis of the complete supply chains, from raw and processed materials to components, assemblies, super-assemblies and systems, for 15 key technologies across the five strategic sectors (renewable energy, electromobility, energy-intensive industry, digital, and aerospace/defence) responsible for the delivery of these targets.

European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Palmer, E., Cavicchi, B. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

The study aims to provide evidence of system methods that can be used in the policy cycle to address complexity and support systemic transitions through transformative innovation policy. To do so the study provides a review of system methods and an evaluation of their application and added value at the different stages of the policy cycle. It concludes with key some recommendations on how to ensure the uptake of system methods in the R&I policy cycle.

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) , 2024.

The EU’s foreign and security policy is in urgent need of a reboot. The EU’s current approach to foreign policy was designed for a world at peace, where multilateralism was strong and global rules and norms were upheld. That world is gone. We now live in an age of contestation and growing geopolitical rivalry where territorial conflicts proliferate and international institutions are in crisis.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Matti, C., Jensen, K., Bontoux, L. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

This foresight study explores possible and necessary changes in the European social and economic systems as the European Union engages in managing sustainability transitions towards 2050. With this focus, the study presents strategic areas of intervention covering a new social contract, governance for sustainability, people and economy, and the global perspective on sustainability. The study reflects on the agency of EU actors (such as government at various levels, business, and communities) to address the strategic areas of intervention as part of collectively addressing sustainability transitions.

Briefing. European Parliament, 2024.

Strategic foresight was identified as a political priority by the European Commission back in 2019, and was integrated into the EU's better regulation guidelines in 2021. It allows practitioners to anticipate alternative futures and, hence, represents a key tool for the EU to future-proof its policies and legislation. Its relevance spans the policy cycle, being of interest ex ante to impact assessments (IAs) and ex post to evaluations. This briefing examines the use of strategic foresight by the Commission in its IAs. It analyses the practices that emerged between January 2020 and December 2023, allowing a comparison between the period prior to January 2022, when foresight became a better regulation tool, with the period since then.