Foresight in Policymaking – EC Library Guide: Selected publications
Selected EU publications
- Adopt AI study – Final study report
European Commission, Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (CNECT), 2024.
A study commissioned by the European Commission highlights the significant potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to improve public sector services across the EU. The report emphasizes that AI can enhance citizen-government interactions, boost analytical capabilities, and increase efficiency in key areas such as healthcare, mobility, e-Government, and education. These sectors are identified as among the most ready for large-scale AI deployment, with applications ranging from autonomous vehicles and smart traffic systems to AI-driven healthcare solutions and education technologies.
However, the study also outlines several challenges hindering AI uptake in the public sector. These include complex public procurement processes, difficulties in data management, a lack of regulatory clarity, and concerns about bias in AI decision-making. In response, the report provides a series of policy recommendations aimed at accelerating AI adoption. These include increasing funding and resources for AI in public services, ensuring transparency and accountability in AI systems, promoting cross-border data sharing, and aligning industry and public sector expectations. The European Commission is advised to create a clear regulatory framework for AI, prioritise long-term implementation, and foster human-centric, trustworthy AI solutions. By addressing these challenges, the EU aims to position itself as a global leader in the development of trustworthy and sustainable AI technologies for the public sector.
- Another brick in the wall? The case for embedded foresight
European University Institute, De Vito, L., Radaelli, C. European University Institute, 2023.
Foresight can support policymakers to address long-term goals and navigate uncertainty in a context of poly- and perma-crisis. Common foresight methods like scenario planning and horizon scanning are commonly deployed to anticipate future risks and opportunities, and test interventions against different trends and possible futures. However, as governments and organisations develop their foresight functions, there is a risk of seeing foresight only as a set of tools or guidance, or as an extra administrative step. Instead, the transformational power of foresight lies in challenging conventional thinking and assumptions at all stages of policymaking. We argue that, to enable a culture of anticipation, organisations should go beyond guidance and embed foresight as a practice throughout the policy cycle. In so doing, it is important that organisations pay particular attention to inclusive and appropriate participation of multiple actors and stakeholders.
- (Dis)entangling the future – Horizon scanning for emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations in the field of quantum technologies
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Mochan, A., Farinha, J., Bailey, G., Rodriguez, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
This report documents the process and findings of a horizon scanning exercise, part of a series under the FUTURINNOV (FUTURe-oriented detection and assessment of emerging technologies and breakthrough INNOVation) project, a collaboration between the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC), aiming to bolster the EIC's strategic intelligence through foresight and anticipatory methodologies. The workshop, held on 24 April 2024, had as its primary goal the evaluation and prioritisation of trends and signals on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovation, across all technology readiness levels (TRLs) and within the EIC's Quantum technologies portfolio.
Signals for the workshop were gathered from experts, literature review, and text/data mining of patents, publications, and EU-funded projects. These signals were then scrutinised for their significance to the field's future by a diverse group of sector experts which led to the identification of nine key topics: quantum sensing; quantum algorithms for lattice-based computational fluid dynamics models; materials for quantum; Artificial Intelligence for quantum; error correction; solid-state scalability; quantum for Artificial Intelligence; quantum as a service – metacloud; and quantum computers. Furthermore, the workshop identified additional wild cards with high novelty and disruptive potential such as quantum sensing AI on edge and molecular spin qubits. Participants also highlighted various factors that could influence the development, adoption, and promotion of these emerging technologies, which can be grouped under the following categories: technical advancements; investment and infrastructure support; cross-sector collaboration; regulatory navigation; talent acquisition; market maturity; and application utility.
- Embracing uncertainty – Harnessing strategic foresight for regional and local progress – Strategic foresight in regions & cities
European Committee of the Regions, European Committee of the Regions, 2024.
Strategic foresight is a future-oriented discipline that seeks to understand, anticipate, and address emerging challenges and opportunities, through systematic and structured identification and analysis of long-term trends, drivers of change, and potential disruptive developments that may shape the political, economic, social, and technological landscape. It is not about predicting the future; it is about exploring different possible futures that could arise, in order to better prepare for change.
- EU-Ukraine 2035: Strategic foresight analysis on the future of the EU and Ukraine
European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Damen, M. European Parliament, 2023.
This analysis looks at the future of the EU and Ukraine, using a time horizon of 2035. It was launched in June 2022 as a Strategic Foresight Conversation, a few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The ensuing war has drastically changed all aspects of life in Ukraine, affects the EU in many significant ways and shifted pre-war geopolitical and geo-economic paradigms. The European Council decision of 24 June 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova added to the need for a long-term perspective on EU-Ukraine relations.
The analysis is based on foresight methodologies, including a multi-stage stakeholder consultation and scenario building. Four scenarios examine future developments along two main axes: the Ukraine-Russia relationship, addressing the development and possible outcome of the war, characterised by the level of hazard; and the EU-Ukraine relationship, characterised by the level of integration. The resulting policy considerations address four areas of future EU action: firstly, the transition from military support towards a new European security architecture; secondly, the process of EU enlargement, reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine; thirdly, the development of an effective, green and sovereign European Union; and fourthly, continuity and review of EU relations with five countries which are key to the conflict: Russia, Belarus, Türkiye, China and the US.
- Everybody is looking into the future! A literature review of reports on emerging technologies and disruptive innovation
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Farinha, J., Vesnic Alujevic, L., Alvarenga, A. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
Growing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity today present major challenges in policymaking. Anticipatory thinking and foresight are of utmost importance to help explore trends, risks and emerging issues, and their potential implications and opportunities in order to draw useful insights for strategic planning, policymaking and preparedness. This report is a part of the project ‘Anticipation and monitoring of emerging technologies and disruptive innovation’ (ANTICIPINNOV), a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Innovation Council (EIC).
The findings include a set of 106 signals and trends on emerging technologies and disruptive innovations across several areas of application. It is based on a review of key reports on technology and innovation signals and trends produced by public and private bodies outside of the EU institutions. Its goal is to strengthen the EIC’s strategic intelligence capacity through the use and development of anticipatory approaches that will - among other goals – support prioritisation in innovation funding. Other insights were identified, namely those related to the scope of EIC programme manager portfolios.
- Eyes on the future – Signals from recent reports on emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations to support European Innovation Council strategic intelligence
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Bailey, G., Farinha, J., Mochan, A. and Pólvora, A., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
This report provides a literature review of publications authored by numerous external organisations. It summarises 34 signals and trends of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations across the 11 primary categories of a taxonomy defined by the European Innovation Council (EIC). The authors investigate not only what is deemed most novel in multiple application domains but what is worth the attention of European Union (EU) policy audiences involved with prioritysetting and decision-making.
This work that has led to this literature review (1) reviews and evaluates 186 reports and articles on emerging technologies, (2) captures 489 signals, of which 86 have been short-listed and 34 selected for this report, (3) creates an internal database of signals which is used to digest and analyse the evolution of signals and novel technologies (4) connects signals with EIC portfolios and other European Commission (EC) initiatives such as policies surrounding critical technologies and Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) investments that, together with the primary and secondary levels of the EIC taxonomy, provide multiple types of analysis and insights (5) draws conclusions that aim to support the EIC funding prioritisation and additionally, provide reflections on EIC portfolio setting. By using the best publicly-available data to produce a harmonised internal database, along with an appropriate filtering and selection methodology, the authors aim to provide a support platform for future-oriented technology analysis of relevance for other EU policy-making initiatives.
- Foresight cybersecurity threats for 2030 – Update – Extended report,
European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Mattioli, R. and Malatras, A., European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, 2024.
The “ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030” study represents a comprehensive analysis and assessment of emerging cybersecurity threats projected for the year 2030. This collaborative endeavour, spearheaded by European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), has employed a structured and multidimensional methodology to assess, forecast, and prioritise potential threats. It was firstly published in 2022, and the current report is its second iteration which reassesses the previously identified top ten threats and respective trends whilst exploring the developments over the course of a year. Our aim was to reassess the results of the Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030, identify potential new trends/threats and understand how the previous trends developed over the course of the year.
One of the key findings of our assessment was that the threat landscape is rapidly evolving. Specifically, the analysis reveals a dynamic threat landscape marked by evolving attack vectors, including advanced persistent threats, nation-state actors, and intricate cybercriminal organisations. Secondly, there is an increase of technology driven challenges whereby the adoption of emerging technologies introduces both opportunities and vulnerabilities. As a result, this finding is necessitating proactive cybersecurity measures to address potential risks. Tying into this, exercises showed that some of the main emerging technologies impacting the threat landscape include quantum computing and artificial intelligence. While both could result with significant opportunities and challenges, workgroups partaking in this project agreed that these could produce vulnerabilities that malicious actors may exploit. The review of the “ENISA Foresight Cybersecurity Threats for 2030” grounded in a rigorous methodology and expert collaboration, offers a forward-looking perspective on the evolving cybersecurity landscape. By embracing the insights and recommendations presented in this report, organisations and policymakers can proactively address emerging threats and fortify their cybersecurity posture, ensuring a resilient digital environment in the year 2030 and beyond.
- Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe”
European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
The publication is the report of a foresight study aimed at supporting the development of the Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2025-2027) with early-stage strategic intelligence and sense-making contributions – issues, trends, perspectives, ideas - that could contribute novel elements to the processes of strategic planning. It presents a wide range of activities covering futures scenarios, and analyses of disruptive trends that may engender challenges and opportunities for Horizon Europe. It also reports on engagement activities wherein stakeholders and the public proposed ideas on how Horizon Europe could respond to the challenges and opportunities of the future.
- Futures of big tech in Europe – Scenarios and policy implications – Foresight
European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Mendonça, S., Archibugi, D., Gerbrandy, A. and Tsipouri, L., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
Big Tech wield unprecedented influence on production and consumption relations. Europe faces a number of epoch-making questions. Will the regulatory frameworks deliver? Should Big Tech be broken up or standards relaxed? Should national and supra-national authorities foster alternative ventures capable of operating at global scale and scope? Or should policy makers prioritise an economic fabric full of smaller enterprises that are locally creative and dynamic? This policy brief uses a scenario approach to sketch the implications of Big Tech for Europe’s future by 2040.
- Futures of civic resilience in Europe, 2040 – Scenarios and policy implications
European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Bas, E., Barker, K., Claus, C., McHugh, L. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
Exploring alternative futures addressing radical changes in society can help better prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civil society today. This policy brief aims to assist policy makers by devising four possible future scenarios in 2040 and by considering their implications for today. While the challenges considered are global, policy implications are addressed especially about the European research and innovation policy. Each scenario provides a different point of view towards the situation in the EU today and what could and should be done by EU R&I policy, and by related policy fields that will affect the efficacy of the R&I policy pursuits towards civic resilience.
- Futures of green skills and jobs in Europe in 2050 – Scenarios and policy implications
European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Knudsen, M., Caniëls, M., Dickinson, P., Hery, M. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
The European Green Deal aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050, boost the economy through green technology, create sustainable industry and transport, and cut pollution. The green transition is seen as a game changer in the EU labour market alongside digitalisation and automation. Skill needs will change with impacts far beyond the key occupations driving them, affecting all economic sectors. To get a better grasp on potential future outcomes, and better anticipate their potential policy implications, a set of future scenarios has been developed around the prospects for green technological leadership and socio-technical transition in Europe. R&I policy implications have been drawn from those scenarios.
- Futures of science for policy in Europe: Scenarios and policy implications
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Sarvaranta, L., Bravo-Biosca, A., De Marchi, B. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
This policy brief explores important trends for the future of science for policy in Europe and the challenges and opportunities that they present for the development of science for policy ecosystems in the European Union. On the background of an increasing prominence of science in public debates and an increasing willingness of governments to mobilize scientific advice, the policy brief explores trends that shape the practices and processes of information exchange between knowledge actors and policy-makers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe, and frame important challenges and opportunities for science for policy ecosystems in the EU.
- Global demography expert survey on the drivers and consequences of demographic change
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Icardi, R., Gailey, N., Goujon, A. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
Population projections provide a valuable toolbox for thinking about the implications of upcoming trends and shifts in population size and structure, which are crucial for understanding various global economic, environmental, societal, and geopolitical developments that significantly depend on human actions. As a result, gaining insights into the future of the global population, in terms of both size and composition, is essential for strategic policy formulation. Most national statistical offices regularly develop population projections. Additionally, some organizations implement population projections at the global level, employing a wide range of methods. In one way or another, these projections rely on expert opinions to come up with assumptions concerning future fertility, mortality, and migration, following various scenarios.
These projections are used by different stakeholders, but it is often unclear what assumptions were made and how they were constructed. That is why IIASA and the United Nations Population Division, two of the world's leading producers of population projections, have joined forces with the JRC to conduct a study on what experts think about the determinants and drivers of future population growth, by creating a survey addressed to them. In this report, we document the results of the online survey that was conducted in 2023. A total of 237 respondents, primarily members of the main demographic associations shared their opinions on 240 arguments/statements related to future trends and drivers of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration, as well as on the policy consequences of key demographic megatrends. They also provided numerical estimates of future fertility and life expectancy levels in 2050 and 2100, with 80% confidence intervals. It is worth noting that the participation and geographical coverage of the respondents do not allow this survey to be considered representative for country specific analysis. Nevertheless, it does offer valuable insights into the demographic challenges of the future, their drivers, uncertainties, and potential consequences.
- Global trends to 2040 – Choosing Europe's future
European Parliament, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
Publication metadata
This fourth ESPAS Global Trends Report is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the future of Europe, its role in the world and its ability to adapt and change to meet fresh challenges and harness new opportunities. In common with other foresight studies, this report does not predict the future. Rather, it attempts to identify the key global trends, analyse their significance for Europe, assess the agency the European Union has to influence global thinking, and sets out some of the main strategic choices policymakers may be required to make — choices that will have a strong bearing on the kind of Europe we will live in by 2040. The report does not seek to offer policy prescriptions, nor does it approach the challenges we face through a particular political prism. Importantly, it does not represent the views or policies of any particular organisation involved in the process.
Rather, we hope it can used by the incoming leaders of the EU institutions and their teams as a tool to help navigate the way ahead. For over a decade, the ESPAS process of informal and collaborative work on strategic foresight amongst officials in the EU’s main institutions and bodies, has had a clear ‘nudge’ effect, in encouraging them to develop their own foresight capacity. With foresight comes a perennial debate about its relevance to policymaking. Elected representatives understandably have a time horizon that is closely aligned with the mandate they have been given. However, there is a greater understanding today that embedding foresight in policymaking can help us anticipate the future and prepare better for the future we want, rather than being driven by events. In this year of institutional and political change in Europe, we hope this report will help to generate debate on the hard choices before us, and guide our political leaders – at this crucial moment for Europe and for its citizens.
- Governance in complexity – Sustainability governance under highly uncertain and complex conditions
European Environment Agency, Governance in complexity – Sustainability governance under highly uncertain and complex conditions, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024
Publication metadata
The triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution is just one of many interconnected and mutually exacerbating socio‑economic crises currently challenging European and global societies. These accelerated and deeply interconnected crises challenge the conventional approach to governance in several ways. Firstly, previously well‑tested and effective tools and practices of problem‑solving are less suited to providing systemic solutions. This is demonstrated by the lack of progress towards sustainability: European policies have yet to produce more than mixed progress towards the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Similarly, the outlook for reaching the EU's long‑term vision of 'living well within the limits of the planet' is not encouraging. Secondly, failing to acknowledge and absorb the many different understandings of complex problems — and the inherent difficulties of governing multi‑faceted and systemic challenges — weakens the legitimacy of any transition toward sustainability. This can strain societal stability and cohesion, as is visible in several parts of Europe already.
This report outlines an alternative concept of 'governance in complexity', based on an evolving understanding of sustainability challenges and how to govern them. The approach of governance in complexity is targeted to deal with complex and systemic challenges by recognising that each has many possible framings, where uncertainty will always be present. If there are always competing and irreconcilable understandings, as was the case with COVID‑19 measures, working to resolve challenges is the only realistic approach. If solving problems is impossible, including more perspectives and extending the basis on which to draw resolutions from is the best solution. In contrast, presenting 'win‑win strategies' when there are in fact underlying trade‑offs would only conceal issues that need to be mitigated and navigated towards a compromise.
- Identifying future critical technologies for space, defence and related civil industries: A technology foresight exercise to support further EU policy developments
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Farinha, J., Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Hristova, M. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
The report presents the findings of a participatory technology foresight exercise that listed 46 emerging and disruptive technologies relevant for space, defence, and related civil industries, which are of strategic importance for the European Union (EU). Throughout the process, participants focused on four future critical technologies that deserve particular attention: (i) quantum communications and cryptography; (ii) space platform; (iii) integrated photonics; and (iv) nuclear micro-reactors. These future critical technologies bear a high level of impact and a high probability of future EU dependency on others.
For each one, the report includes a series of recommendations to address risks, challenges and future dependencies. Beyond the listing and analysis of key technologies, the authors summarised 10 clusters of topics related to technology development and adoption: (i) geopolitics; (ii) cooperation; (iii) investment; (iv) market; (v) skills and knowledge; (vi) ethical issues; (vii) regulations and standards; (viii) development of technology building blocks; (ix) twin transition and security of assets; and (x) data and communications. These insights can support further research and policy developments. The report concludes with a detailed explanation of the methodology applied and the results of intermediary phases.
- Making the EESC the facilitator and guarantor of participatory democracy activities, including structured dialogue with civil society organisations and citizens’ panels: Final report
European Economic and Social Committee, Agostinelli, D., Klakla, J., Kulesa, A. et al. European Economic and Social Committee, 2023.
Publication metadata
This study looks at the Conference of the Future of Europe’s (CoFoE) proposals on European democracy and the role of the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC). It explores different options for institutional reform of the EESC to best serve its purpose and increase citizens’ participation. To do this, the study examines different forms of participatory and deliberative practices, the current functions of the EESC, and the roles and structures of selected National Economic and Social Councils (NESCs).
The study concludes with recommendations for revisiting the EESC’s structure and functioning, and centred around the issues of communication improvement, points at which the general public should be involved, as well as digitalisation. As regards the structure of the EESC, a more targeted approach to representation and abandoning the tripartite structure is suggested by experts interviewed for the purpose of this study. The study concludes that new forms of EESC activities should be given the time, resources, and attention they need to be effective.
- Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide – Normandy index 2024
European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Lazarou, E., Bassot, E. and Stanicek, B., European Parliament, 2024.
Conflict is rarely confined to the geographical space in which wars take place. The increasingly global effects – human, material and political – of wars and conflicts make a view of the level of threats to peace, security and democracy around the world more important than ever. The 'Normandy Index' has presented an annual measurement of these threats since the 2019 Normandy Peace Forum. The results of the 2024 exercise suggest the level of threats to peace is the highest since the Index began, confirming declining trends in global security resulting from conflict, geopolitical rivalry, growing militarisation and hybrid threats. The findings of the 2024 exercise draw on data compiled in 2023-2024 to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's performance against a range of predetermined threats – across countries and regions.
A series of 63 individual country case studies To complete the picture of the state of peace today. Designed and prepared by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), in conjunction with and on the basis of data provided by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Normandy Index is produced in partnership with the Region of Normandy. The paper forms part of the EPRS contribution to the 2024 Normandy World Peace Forum.
- Natural disasters – Anticipatory governance and disaster risk management from a local and regional perspective
European Committee of the Regions: Commission for Natural Resources, Maj, A., Wiktorow-Bojska, A. and Zubel, K., European Committee of the Regions, 2024.
Climate change is a key dominant trend across the territories of the European Union (EU) given the expected growing frequency of multiple climate change-induced hazards. Serious impacts on ecosystems, the economy, and human health and well-being will be observed as a result. Minimising the risks and impacts stemming from these extremes is therefore a priority for the EU, and for national and Local and Regional Authorities (LRAs).
- Outline of the dynamic baseline for the MSFD impact assessment analysis in the context of the Blue2 modelling framework initiative
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Macias Moy, D., Bisselink, B., Duteil, O. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
As part of the support JRC is providing DG ENV on the coming review (impact assessment and potential revision) of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), it is necessary to develop a future scenario in which the Directive is not changed but that consider all other elements (policy and socio-economic developments) that are expected to happen in the next decades. This scenario is named the ‘dynamic baseline’ and it should provide (once simulated with the appropriate modelling tools) the likely environmental conditions of EU marine regions in 2050 in the case of ‘no-revision’ of the MSFD. The environmental conditions under this scenario should be compared against those derived from the different ‘revision scenarios’ in which different elements of the MSFD are changed.
The difference between both scenarios should help quantify the impacts of the revision options. As a first step towards the realization of the dynamic baseline, it is necessary to identify the main elements (e.g., drivers, trends and policies) that should be considered for the different descriptors of the Good Environmental Status included in the MSFD. This report contains, for each individual descriptor, the drivers (e.g., socio-economic developments, climate changes and international cooperation) and legislations (both at EU and international level) that could influence the condition of those descriptors in the next few decades. The information contained in this report should provide the basis for the construction of the dynamic baseline scenario for the different descriptors covered by the Blue2 Modelling Framework to be simulated in the context of the Blue2.3 Administrative Arrangement.
- R&I foresight in government: A handbook for policymakers: Final report
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Cassingena Harper, J. Cassingena Harper, J.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
This Final Report outlines the current state of the play in relation to institutionalised R&I foresight and proposes a way forward for extending and strengthening R&I foresight in government. It showcases exemplary R&I foresight practice and related strategic processes, structures and capacities at EU level and in participating countries and beyond. It draws on these country cases to provide a guidance towards a handbook on tailored tools and approaches for applying R&I foresight in a range of contemporary policy contexts, including smart specialisation, mission-oriented policy, citizen engagement and twin transition and disruptions. The Report recommends coordinated efforts between Member States and the EU to invest in the enabling conditions for enhanced R&I foresight in government, in particular futures literacy and related foresight studies.
- Reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Muench, S., Stoermer, E. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. Foresight scenarios are a practical tool that can help improve decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. To increase preparedness for an uncertain future, the JRC facilitated a foresight process to develop four reference foresight scenarios. This participatory process was based on the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and engaged more than 100 experts. The reference foresight scenarios explore the global standing of the European Union in 2040.
In total, they depict four distinct and plausible futures: Storms, End Game, Struggling Synergies, and Opposing Views. The reference scenarios can support decisionmakers in several ways, for example by stresstesting current and future policies and policy initiatives, by raising strategic discussions and discussing future implications for a specific policy field, and by increasing futures literacy. This report summarises the results of a foresight process to develop Reference foresight scenarios of the future global standing of the European Union (EU) in 2040. Foresight scenarios are a tool for improving strategy development and decision-making in the contexts of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have shown that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected has become increasingly important. The reference scenarios presented in this report aim to help decisionmakers increase the preparedness of their organisations under increasingly unpredictable circumstances.
- Risks on the horizon
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Muench, S., Whyte, J., Hauer, G., Maleville, A. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
Decision makers are faced with a world characterised by increasing turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity. These conditions make it more difficult to assess risks when making strategic decisions or planning for the long-term. This study presents a foresight approach to increase preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. Foresight methods offer a way to consider and focus on risks that may be beyond the scope of traditional quantitative and qualitative risk assessment approaches. Several snapshots of the future depict different worlds that have undergone substantial changes as a consequence of emerging developments.
An analysis of the risks inherent in the possible futures identified ten risk clusters that are relevant for decision makers, and mapped future developments that might lead to them. The same development pathways that could lead to risks can also create opportunities, and the study provides some examples. Decision makers face the challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of risks, while reaping the benefits of potential opportunities. This study also presents the results of a Delphi survey that evaluated the scope and severity of risks. Three of the 40 risks identified in this study were assessed to be potentially existential for humanity: 1) environmental degradation, 2) environmental disasters, and 3) loss of power by humans.
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- Scenarios for the future of school education in the EU – A foresight study
European Commission: Directorate-General for Education, Youth, Sport and Culture, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures that could be introduced, or strengthened, to help school education in the EU move towards the preferred future scenario.
- Strategic Foresight Report 2023 = Rapport de prospective stratégique 2023 = Strategische Vorausschau 2023
Opinion, European Economic and Social Committee, 2024.
European Economic and Social Committee opinion on the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on 2023 Strategic Foresight Report - Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Open Strategic Autonomy - COM(2023) 376 final.
- Stress-testing of policy options using foresight scenarios – A pilot case
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Vesnic-Alujevic, L. and Störmer, E., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
This report summarises a pilot process of stress-testing policy options against a set of reference foresight scenarios. The process was led by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and applied to a specific EU policy proposal on Standard Essential Patents. The goal of this report is to provide an example and serve as a guide for any future process of stress-testing policy options against foresight scenarios. A set of reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 was used to stress-test five policy options and the baseline option, in relation to the EU policy initiative on Standard Essential Patents. The process ran during the initial stage of the impact assessment process, but it was not an official part of it. The results of this pilot helped to understand which policy options are more or less robust and how they can be made more future-proof. The process also provided rich insights into what the challenges and opportunities of this approach are, and into how stress-testing can be further incorporated into EU policymaking.
- Stress-testing to promote the resilience of EU policies
European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Fernandes, M., Heflich, A. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
Stress-testing is a promising foresight policy tool that can support the design of EU policies able to withstand the shocks and challenges of both the present day and the years to come. This study explores how the European Parliament could use stress-tests to identify weak points in EU legislation and avenues for further EU action. The study draws on the findings of a stress-test of EU rail transport policy and recommendations from an expert practitioner of foresight and regulatory policy. It finds that stress-tests across different policy areas could boost the European Parliament's role as co-legislator in the European Union, especially in the agenda-setting and law-making phases of the legislative cycle.
- Supply chain analysis and material demand forecast in strategic technologies and sectors in the EU – A foresight study
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Carrara, S., Bobba, S., Blagoeva, D., Alves Dias, P. et al., Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
In order for the European Union to achieve the ambitious targets it has set for the energy and digital transitions and its defence and space agenda, it needs undisrupted access to critical raw materials and to many products which contain them. This foresight study presents a systematic and detailed analysis of the complete supply chains, from raw and processed materials to components, assemblies, super-assemblies and systems, for 15 key technologies across the five strategic sectors (renewable energy, electromobility, energy-intensive industry, digital, and aerospace/defence) responsible for the delivery of these targets.
The study assesses supply chain dependencies and forecasts materials demand until 2050 in the EU, other economic regions and the world. It also assesses the EU’s materials needs and vulnerabilities now and in the future. As such, it provides a forward-looking basis to help identify strategic raw materials for key technologies and applications, to identify bottlenecks and to pinpoint the segments of supply chains which need strengthening and how. This study contributes scientific evidence to underpin the Critical Raw Materials Act, in tandem with which it is published.
- Systems based methods for research & innovation policy: How can they contribute to designing R&I policy for transitions?
European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Palmer, E., Cavicchi, B. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
The study aims to provide evidence of system methods that can be used in the policy cycle to address complexity and support systemic transitions through transformative innovation policy. To do so the study provides a review of system methods and an evaluation of their application and added value at the different stages of the policy cycle. It concludes with key some recommendations on how to ensure the uptake of system methods in the R&I policy cycle.
- Ten ideas for the new team – How the EU can navigate a power political world
European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) , 2024.
The EU’s foreign and security policy is in urgent need of a reboot. The EU’s current approach to foreign policy was designed for a world at peace, where multilateralism was strong and global rules and norms were upheld. That world is gone. We now live in an age of contestation and growing geopolitical rivalry where territorial conflicts proliferate and international institutions are in crisis.
- Towards a fair and sustainable Europe 2050: Social and economic choices in sustainability transitions
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Matti, C., Jensen, K., Bontoux, L. et al. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
This foresight study explores possible and necessary changes in the European social and economic systems as the European Union engages in managing sustainability transitions towards 2050. With this focus, the study presents strategic areas of intervention covering a new social contract, governance for sustainability, people and economy, and the global perspective on sustainability. The study reflects on the agency of EU actors (such as government at various levels, business, and communities) to address the strategic areas of intervention as part of collectively addressing sustainability transitions.
The study builds on a participatory foresight exercise, which generated four foresight scenarios for a climate-neutral EU in 2050. Based on each scenario, a corresponding transition pathway was co-created and analysed through the process. The study presents and analyses these outputs of the process. The outputs can also serve as input to policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting new participatory exercises on sustainability transitions.
- The use of strategic foresight in Commission impact assessments – Existing practices and the way forward
Briefing. European Parliament, 2024.
Strategic foresight was identified as a political priority by the European Commission back in 2019, and was integrated into the EU's better regulation guidelines in 2021. It allows practitioners to anticipate alternative futures and, hence, represents a key tool for the EU to future-proof its policies and legislation. Its relevance spans the policy cycle, being of interest ex ante to impact assessments (IAs) and ex post to evaluations. This briefing examines the use of strategic foresight by the Commission in its IAs. It analyses the practices that emerged between January 2020 and December 2023, allowing a comparison between the period prior to January 2022, when foresight became a better regulation tool, with the period since then.
The analysis shows that, despite a progressive increase in the number of IAs featuring a foresight component, practices continue to vary greatly across the Commission Directorates-General responsible for these IAs, in terms of methodology, clarity and consistency. Nine of the 63 IAs analysed in this briefing were supported by dedicated studies using foresight methodology. The majority of these studies were conducted by the Joint Research Centre, the Commission's internal science and knowledge service, which provides a broad offer to assist the use of foresight, including training and research. Two studies were commissioned to external contractors. Foresight studies require time and resources. They should be systematically conducted when a foresight approach adds value to the examination of the topic at stake. Foresight methods include the analysis of megatrends and scenario planning. The Commission's Regulatory Scrutiny Board (RSB) ensures quality control of the Commission's IA work. Besides advising on the IA process and expressing its opinion on the quality of each individual draft IA, it also gives an annual account of progress on better law-making. In its opinions, the RSB inter alia stressed the need for consistency in the use of foresight throughout IA reports, calling for foresight to be integrated into the sections on problem definition and policy options.
- Last Updated: May 23, 2025 11:52 AM
- URL: https://ec-europa-eu.libguides.com/foresight
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