Cummings, M.L., Chatham House, 2017.

Both military and commercial robots will in the future incorporate ‘artificial intelligence’ (AI) that could make them capable of undertaking tasks and missions on their own. In the military context, this gives rise to a debate as to whether such robots should be allowed to execute such missions, especially if there is a possibility that any human life could be at stake. To better understand the issues at stake, this paper presents a framework explaining the current state of the art for AI, the strengths and weaknesses of the technology, and what the future likely holds. The framework demonstrates that while computers and AI can be superior to humans in some skill- and rule-based tasks, under situations that require judgment and knowledge, in the presence of significant uncertainty, humans are superior to computers.

McKendrick, K., Chatham House, 2022.

The use of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) in countering terrorism is often assumed to have a deleterious effect on human rights, generating spectres of ‘pre-crime’ punishment and surveillance states. However, the well-regulated use of new capabilities may enhance states’ abilities to protect citizens’ right to life, while at the same time improving adherence to principles intended to protect other human rights, such as transparency, proportionality and freedom from unfair discrimination. The same regulatory framework could also contribute to safeguarding against broader misuse of related technologies.

Fiott, D. and Lindstrom, G., European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2018.

This brief seeks to advance the discussion about AI and security and defence within an EU context, and also to offer policymakers a few analytical pointers that may be useful when dealing with defence and AI.

Tarraf, D.C., Shelton, W., Parker, E., Alkire, B.Gehlhaus, D. et al.,RAND, 2019.

The 2019 National Defense Authorization Act mandated a study on artificial intelligence (AI) topics. In this report, RAND Corporation researchers assess the state of AI relevant to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and address misconceptions about AI; they carry out an independent and introspective assessment of the Department of Defense's posture for AI; and they share a set of recommendations for internal actions, external engagements, and potential legislative or regulatory actions to enhance the Department of Defense's posture in AI.

Radin, S., ICRC Humanitarian Law and Policy, 2019.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have the potential to affect many aspects of our lives in significant and widespread ways. Certain types of machine learning systems—the major focus of recent AI developments—are already pervasive, for example in weather predictions, social media services and search engine results, online recommendation systems. Machine learning is also being applied to complex applications that include predictive policing in law enforcement and ‘advice’ for judges when sentencing in criminal justice. Meanwhile, growing resources are being allocated to developing other AI applications.

Konaev, M. and Nurkin, T., Atlantic Council, 2022.

As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms national security and defense, it is imperative for the Department of Defense (DoD), Congress, and the private sector to closely collaborate in order to advance major AI development priorities. However, key barriers remain. Bureaucracy, acquisition processes, and organizational culture continue to inhibit the military’s ability to bring in external innovation and move more rapidly toward AI integration and adoption. As China—and, to a lesser extent, Russia—develop their own capabilities, the stakes of the military AI competition are high, and time is short. It is now well past time to see eye to eye in AI. Therefore, Forward Defense’s latest report, generously supported by Accrete AI, addresses these key issues and more.

Csernatoni, R., Carnegie Europe, 2024.

The lack of an international governance framework for military AI poses risks to global security. The EU should spearhead an inclusive initiative to set global standards and ensure the responsible use of AI in warfare.

Araya, D. and King, M., Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2022.

The twenty-first century is now being shaped by a multipolar system characterized by techno-nationalism and a post-Bretton Woods order. In the face of a rapidly evolving digital era, international cooperation will be critical to ensuring peace and security. Information sharing, expert conferences and multilateral dialogue can help the world’s nation-states and their militaries develop a better understanding of one another’s capabilities and intentions. As a global middle power, Canada could be a major partner in driving this effort. This paper explores the development of military-specific capabilities in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Building on Canadian defence policy, the paper outlines the military applications of AI and the resources needed to manage next-generation military operations, including multilateral engagement and technology governance.

Boulanin, V., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2019.

This volume focuses on the impact on artificial intelligence (AI) on nuclear strategy. It explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in AI could have nuclear weapons and doctrines, strategic stability and nuclear risk. It assembles the views of 14 experts from the Euro-Atlantic community on why and how machine learning and autonomy might become the focus of an armed race among nuclear-armed states; and how the adoption of these technologies might impact their calculation of strategic stability and nuclear risk at the regional level and trans-regional level.

Lucarelli, S., Marrone, A. and Moro, F.N., Istituto Affari Internazionali, 2021.

This publication is the result of the Conference “NATO decision-making: promises and perils of the big data age”. It analyses three interconnected aspects with a view to the Alliance’s evolution: big data and organizational challenges for NATO; hybrid threats to Allies’ decision-making; the adoption of AI in the defence domain and NATO’s role.

Hayman, T., Institute for National Security Studies, 2023.

“The first digital war” is one way to describe the events underway in Ukraine. The flood of open-source information helps intelligence organizations obtain a precise picture of the situation, but may also lead to confusion and unfounded bias. What can Israel learn from the Ukraine experience of the past year on the correct use of open-source intelligence in times of war?