Isaure Langlois d'Estaintot, European University Institute, 2024.

Recent empirical evidence suggests that labour markets are not as competitive as previously thought. In that context, mobilizing antitrust policy has been discussed as a possible solution. The proposition sounds counterintuitive, however. If workers are paid below the competitive level, doesn’t this promote consumers’ outcomes by reducing downstream prices? Given that antitrust policy promotes consumer welfare, why would antitrust authorities intervene against such a state of affairs? Besides, why would stepping up on antitrust enforcement improve workers’ outcomes? Their interests have traditionally been protected through their exclusion from the scope of antitrust enforcement, not by the enforcement of antitrust rules to their benefit. This thesis demonstrates that those spontaneous assumptions do not hold.

Sophie Natalie Chevalier, European University Institute, 2024.

As the global temperature continues to rise, the melting Arctic is triggering significant geopolitical changes across the region. The research investigates the intricate connection between Arctic hydrocarbon development and military expansions, focusing on the roles of Russia, the US, and Norway. It argues that the economic potential of Arctic hydrocarbons motivates states to enhance their military presence, thereby intensifying geopolitical tensions and transforming global energy dynamics and strategic partnerships.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union, Ünver, A., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This in-depth analysis (IDA) explores the most prominent actors, cases and techniques of algorithmic authoritarianism together with the legal, regulatory and diplomatic framework related to AI-based biases as well as deliberate misuses. With the world leaning heavily towards digital transformation, AI’s use in policy, economic and social decision-making has introduced alarming trends in repressive and authoritarian agendas. Such misuse grows ever more relevant to the European Parliament, resonating with its commitment to safeguarding human rights in the context of digital trans-formation. By shedding light on global patterns and rapidly developing technologies of algorithmic authoritarianism, this IDA aims to produce a wider understanding of the complex policy, regulatory and diplomatic challenges at the intersection of technology, democracy and human rights.

European Central Bank, Mistak, J. and Ozkan, F., Asymmetric monetary policy spillovers – The role of supply chains, credit networks and fear of floating, European Central Bank, 2024.

This paper examines the asymmetry in global spillovers from Fed policy across tightening versus easing episodes several examples of which have been on display since the global financial crisis (GFC). We build a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring: (i) occasionally binding collateral constraints in the financial sector with significant cross-border exposure; and (ii) global supply chains, allowing us to match the asymmetry of spillovers across contractionary versus expansionary monetary policy shocks. We find clear asymmetries in the transmission of US monetary policy, with significantly larger spillovers during contractionary episodes under both conventional and unconventional monetary policy changes. Our results also reveal that the greater the size of international credit and supply chain networks and the policymakers’ aversion to exchange rate fluctuations in the rest of the world, the greater the spillover effects of US monetary policy shocks.

European Commission: Joint Research Centre, Bongiardo, D., Chiaramello, D., Dara, A., Cortinovis, R. et al., Atlas of migration 2024, Bongiardo, D.(editor), Dara, A.(editor), Crespi, I.(editor) and Sofos, I.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

The Atlas of Migration is more than just a publication—it is a testament to the power of data and rigorous analysis in illuminating the multifaceted nature of migratory movements. The 2024 edition of the Atlas continues to serve as a vital tool for policymakers, researchers and the public at large, offering a wealth of data to cut through the confusion and misinformation that often surrounds the discourse on migration. The Atlas provides the latest harmonised and validated data on migration for the 27 EU Member States and for 171 countries and territories around the world. It brings together data from many reliable sources, such as Eurostat, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, the World Bank and many others. This year’s thematic chapter of the Atlas delves into the nuanced motivations behind migration, moving beyond simplified narratives in favour of a more comprehensive view that acknowledges the diverse and often overlapping reasons that propel individuals to move.

Nevada Joan Lee, European University Institute, 2024.

This thesis explores the rapidly changing European security landscape following the Trump administration and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It explores the implications for U.S. market share and the transatlantic relationship in light of recent initiatives passed by the European Commission that aim to bolster the European defense industry. I argue that these defense industry initiatives, driven by external pressures and the pursuit of strategic autonomy, will likely lead to a decrease in U.S. defense firms' market share in the short term but are unlikely to be primary factors in weakening the transatlantic relationship.

European Investment Bank, Hanzl-Weiss, D. and Stehrer, R., Dynamics of productive investment and gaps between the United States and EU countries, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

After the global financial crisis, investment fell more substantially than it had in the wake of previous recessions. With investment seemingly recovering faster in the United States than in Europe, the fear of a lasting gap emerged in Europe. This detailed analysis compares the investment dynamics and capital accumulation in the United States and the European Union, focusing on 2013-2019. It uses data from Eurostat and EU KLEMS releases to highlight the gaps and variations in investment strategies across different countries and asset types. The working paper provides key insights into the investment rates, growth of real gross fixed capital formation, and accumulation of stocks. It reveals an investment gap primarily due to lower rates in tangible information and communication technology and intangible assets after the global financial crisis, particularly in larger EU Member States.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Stokes, B., European Parliament, 2024.

EPRS invites leading experts and commentators to share their thinking and insights on important topics of relevance to debate in the European institutions. In this paper, Bruce Stokes, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and associate fellow at Chatham House, offers an overview of US-EU relations since the passage of the US Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. This paper is based on the author's interviews with leading European and US experts and published analysis by major think tanks and journalists on both sides of the Atlantic. The paper discusses current efforts to manage longstanding pre-IRA disputes, the Trade and Technology Council, the US Chips and Science Act and the EU's response, looming issues such as CBAM and critical minerals, and how politics in both the US and Europe may affect the handling of these issues.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Zarin, J. and Díez Parra, I., Freedom to conduct a business, a comparative law perspective – United States of America, Díez Parra, I.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This document is part of a series of Comparative Law studies that analyze the freedom to conduct a business in different legal orders around the world. After a brief historic introduction and a presentation of applicable legislation and case law, the content, limits and possible evolution of this freedom are examined. The subject of this study is the United States’ federal legal system. The United States’ Constitution does not grant an express right to freely conduct or operate a business. To the contrary, the Constitution expressly grants the federal Congress power to regulate interstate commerce.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Camarero, M., Moliner, S. and Tamarit, C., A fresh assessment of the depth of the “euro effect" on US FDI, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This paper analyzes how European monetary integration has affected US outward FDI (OFDI), which we call the “euro effect". To this aim, we consider the determinants of OFDI for a large group of 56 host countries in different continents from 1985-2019, zooming in on the European case, where we analyze different country groupings. To capture the “euro effect" we define a dummy variable that considers Europe’s whole monetary integration process.

European Central Bank, Ilkova, I., Lebastard, L. and Serafini, R., Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States – De-risking of import supplies?, European Central Bank, 2024.

Based on granular data at the product level, this paper looks at whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not mutually exclusive, changes to sourcing strategies for a given product: (i) increasing the number of sourcing countries and (ii) reducing the import market share of the main supplier country.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Torrejón Pérez, S., Fernández-Macías, E., Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

We investigate shifts in employment structures during the first decades of the twenty-first century at a global scale, focusing on a diverse set of countries, including eight EU countries, Canada, U.S., Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Russia, India, and South Korea. Using the jobs-based approach as the common underlying methodology enhances the comparability of results. The findings highlight a lack of a singular prevailing pattern in employment changes, revealing a variety of shift patterns across countries and time periods. Nonetheless, job upgrading emerges as the most frequently observed pattern.

European Central Bank, Afrouzi, H., Dietrich, A., Myrseth, K., Priftis, R. et al., Inflation preferences, European Central Bank, 2024.

We document novel survey-based facts about preferred long-run inflation rates among US consumers. Consumers on average prefer a 0.20% annual inflation rate, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Inflation preferences not only correlate with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, but also with economic reasoning. A randomized control trial reveals that two narratives based on economic models—describing how inflation lowers the real value of wages and money holdings—affect inflation preferences. While our results can inform the design of central bank communication on inflation targets, they also raise questions about the alignment between such targets and consumer preferences.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, International benchmarking of the digital transformation – Final report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

The thematic scope of the study covers EU digital performance relative to the benchmark countries, with the analysis being framed according to the four cardinal points of the Digital Decade: (1) digital skills; (2) digital infrastructure; (3) the digital transformation of businesses; and (4) digital public services. In addition to the EU 27, the geographical scope of this study covers the seven non-EU benchmark countries, selected on the basis of their prowess in digitalisation and/or economic significance: Australia, China, Israel, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy, Just Transition Platform policy approach – The Just Transition Fund in the USA – Assembling private and public funding to support community-led projects in regions affected by the transition – North America, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This document is part of a series presenting information and lessons learned on policy approaches at national, regional or local level supporting a just transition to a climate-neutral economy. The Just Transition Platform (JTP) assists EU Member States and regions to unlock the support in this transition.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union and Reis, R., Letting large European firms grow, European Parliament, 2024.

The EU has grown less, and has become less productive, than the US in the last twenty years. The differences are small, but a healthy ambition to do better justifies analysing the sources of this difference and how policy can affect them. This paper focuses on the pattern of specialisation of the EU economy and discusses the role of large firms in generating innovation. It documents the large US-EU gap in the ability to scale large firms and grow them into world leaders, and discusses the reasons that can be behind it, as well as what policies may change this. Focussing on industrial policy, it discusses its potential together with several reasons to be sceptical that the potential could be realised. It concludes that promoting more movement and better allocation of capital and labour within the EU are general priorities.

European University Institute and Akita, H., The looming risk of World War III, European University Institute, 2024.

This paper analyses the risk of a Third World War. Although conflicts are taking place in many parts of the world, many people may not feel there is much of a threat. However, if one observes reality dispassionately, the view that the risk of a Third World War is looming is not necessarily unrealistic. First, let us look back at the history of the great wars mainly in Europe since the end of the 18th century: the Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, the Franco-Prussian War, the First World War and the Second World War. The longest interwar period was 43 years between the Franco-Prussian War and the First World War, this is followed by 39 years between the Napoleon War and the Crimean War. Conversely, the shortest interwar period was that between the Franco-Prussian War and the First World War, which lasted only 14 years. By comparison, since the Second World War ended in 1945, the international community has not experienced a major war for almost 80 years, despite the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Looking back at modern history, the 80 years of peace after 1945 should be considered unusual.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Viscido, S., Strauka, O. and Coroler, E., Policy landscape supporting technology infrastructures in Europe – Final report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This report presents the results of the study “Policy Landscape Supporting Technology Infrastructures in Europe”. It consists in a thorough landscape analysis of all types of strategies, policies, programmes, instruments, public and private investment plans and funding streams supporting Technology Infrastructures at regional, national and EU levels. It provides background information to support the discussions on the development of a more strategic and coordinated approach to Technology Infrastructures in Europe, in the context of the European Research Area (ERA) Action 12. In addition to the EU level analysis, the study covered the 27 EU Members States, five selected Third Countries namely Canada, Japan, Switzerland, the UK and the US, and included a more detailed analysis through 12 case studies.

European Commission: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Nikolov, P., Simons, W., Turrini, A. and Llobell, E., Mid-Tech Europe? – Sectoral account on total factor productivity growth from the latest vintage of the EU-KLEMs database, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This paper uncovers patterns of TFP growth in the EU compared with the US using the latest vintage of the EU-KLEMS database which accounts better for intangible capital in production. Both in the EU and the US the growth contribution of TFP has been declining over the past two decades, while that of intangible capital and labour composition has been growing since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) recovery. Most TFP growth can be attributed to a relatively few industries. The TFP growth advantage of the US over the EU is linked both to higher TFP growth rates in the sectors generating large TFP gains and to larger shares in value added for these sectors.

Lorenzo Diez-Picazo Garot, European University Institute, 2024.

Amid the AI revolution and the increasing awareness of skill-biased innovation as a major driver of inequality growth, a new research and policy agenda is taking shape. We contribute to it by developing a framework that connects the policy recommendations in academic literature and the policies implemented in both the EU and the U.S. after the pandemic. The framework draws a distinction between traditional labor policies that protect workers and novel policies that seek to enhance labor-productivity at scale. Along that divide, we pay special attention to the underlying factors that lead to the adoption of different policy strategies. We contend that both the growing geopolitical competition and the pandemic shock have left the EU relying on traditional welfare policies, while the U.S. has sought for novel approaches. The latter include a blend of industrial and labor policies which aim to make top innovative sectors more labor-intensive.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Price, A., Díez Parra, I., European Parliament, 2023.

This study forms part of a larger comparative law project which seeks to present the rule of law in a broad range of legal orders around the world. The subject of this study is the United States federal legal system. It presents the main relevant sources regarding the rule of law (legislation in force, case law and literature) in the US. America’s rule of law principles have origins in selected philosophies, legal histories, and lived experiences. With this background, America’s Founders created a system, with separate government functions and checks and balances, to ensure that no government branch successfully usurped the power of the other branches, and to promote stability across the government while it adapts to society’s changing needs.

Grigorios Bacharis, European University Institute, 2024.

Publication metadata
Private enforcement—the pursuit of public policies through private plaintiff litigation — is used more than in the past, with the United States and the European Union as two of its main promoters. Theoretical and practical problems arise as private law, designed for another purpose, needs to change to adapt to the demands of enforcing public policy. The main question is how to change existing tort law rules to incentivise enforcement without sacrificing the structure and rationality of private law. Focusing on substantive law and specifically on the conditions of liability, I will ask how and why they should change, if at all. For this reason, I will use competition damages claims in the EU and the US as the primary case study, investigating how standing, causation, fault, and passive liability, are shaped in this area compared to general tort law.

European Central Bank, De Santis, R., Tornese, T., European Central Bank, 2024.

We use nonlinear empirical methods to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of monetary policy shocks. We find that the transmission on output, goods prices and asset prices is stronger in a low growth regime, contrary to the findings of Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016). The impact is stronger on private investment and durables and milder on the consumption of nondurable goods and services. In periods of low growth, a contractionary monetary policy implies lower expected Treasury rates and higher premia along the entire Treasury yield curve. Similarly, the corporate excess bond premium rises and the stock market drops substantially during recessions. We use the monetary policy surprises and their predictors provided by Bauer and Swanson (2023a), and identify an additional predictor, the National Financial Condition Index (NFCI), which is relevant in the nonlinear setting. A Threshold VAR, a Smooth-Transition VAR and nonlinear local projection methods all corroborate the findings.

European University Institute and Giorgio, J., What are the consequences for middle powers, such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, of a multi-order future?, European University Institute, 2024.

The essay will start by analysing the evolution of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US amidst the change going on In the liberal international order, introducing the concept of liberal intrusiveness. It will then explain why a space for contesting the liberal intrusiveness opened for Saudi Arabia, by looking at the growing relationship with Beijing. Ultimately, it will draw some conclusions on the consequences of the changing international order towards a multi-order future for middle powers such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

European Central Bank, Andres–Escayola, E., McQuade, P., Schroeder, C. and Tirpák, M., What shapes spillovers from monetary policy shocks in the United States to emerging market economies?, European Central Bank, 2024.

Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed light on how domestic factors shape external monetary policy spillover effects using indicators on the macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy stances of EMEs. We find that a surprise tightening of monetary policy in the US leads to an immediate tightening of financial conditions which leads to a decline in activity and prices in EMEs over one year. Importantly, these effects are amplified in periods of high vulnerabilities and attenuated when EMEs follow a prudent monetary policy stance. Our findings help explain the greater resilience of many EMEs to the Fed’s post-COVID-19 tightening cycle, and highlight the benefits of the broad improvements of monetary policy frameworks in these countries.