Cautrès, B. and Chopin, T., Policy Paper n°297, Institut Jacques Delors, 2024.

Les prochaines élections européennes constitueront un moment démocratique essentiel pour les citoyens européens. Ce sera une occasion importante (tous les cinq ans) de choisir directement leurs représentants européens au suffrage universel direct. Le contexte dans lequel auront lieu ces élections met en évidence des défis lancés aux Européens dont les réponses pourront être – en partie au moins – forgés par des choix législatifs et budgétaires dans le cadre de la prochaine législature pendant les cinq ans à venir. Les rapports de force partisans qui découleront de ce scrutin impacteront non seulement l’agenda de la future Commission mais plus largement l’orientation de la politique européenne à l’horizon 2030.

Quaritsch, L., Jacques Delors Centre, Hertie School, 2024.

The 2024 European elections could mark a turning point in EU politics: The European Parliament has traditionally been a progressive force in EU policymaking, often pushing for more far-reaching, European solutions than the Council. This dynamic could fundamentally change after the 2024 elections, with the current power balance expected to shift in favour of more right-wing forces. But even without a turn towards a Eurosceptic majority, the outcome will determine the direction of policies decided by the Parliament and shape EU politics over the next five years. This policy brief offers an overview of the need-to-know for this election year. First, it details the institutional timeline until the end of the current legislative cycle. Second, it provides an overview of how European political parties are approaching the election campaign. Third, it discusses election day, possible new majorities in Parliament and inevitable institutional haggling over key positions. Finally, it describes the missed reform opportunities since the 2019 elections and how this may undermine the integrity of the June poll.

Cunningham, K., Dennison, S., Hix, S., et al., European Council on Foreign Relations, 2024.

Far-right parties are becoming increasingly dominant in national settings across many EU capitals. Whether in election results, such as the success of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in the Dutch general election in November, or in their ability to set the agenda from the opposition – such as the National Rally’s support for France’s regressive immigration bill in December – the far right played an important role in shaping European politics in 2023. 2024 is likely to see a continuation of this trend not only in national politics, but also at the European level, with early polls suggesting a more right-leaning European Parliament will emerge after the June 2024 European Parliament elections. To determine how significant this shift could be and the effect it could have on the European Union’s policies and those of national governments, we collected the most recent opinion polls in every EU member state and applied a statistical model of the performance of national parties in previous European Parliament elections, building on a model we developed and used for the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections.The results indicate that the European Parliament will likely take a sharp turn to the right after June 2024. While the parliament is not the most significant EU institution when it comes to foreign policy, the way in which the political groups align after the elections, and the impact that these elections have on national debates in ,ember states, will have significant implications for the European Commission’s and Council’s ability to make foreign policy choices, most notably in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal.

Joannin, P., Fondation Robert Schuman, 2023.

Europe is facing a situation that it never thought it would have to face again: there is now a war on its borders, whereas since 1950 the European project has been built on peace ("Never again"), and as a result the return of power struggles which is forcing Europe to adapt its rules so that it can remain relevant in the global competition. In these circumstances, the European elections of spring 2024 (6-9 June) represent a political opportunity to assert and strengthen Europe's place and weight on the international scene. This election will be the starting point for an almost complete renewal of the European institutions with the appointment of the Commission and the designation of a new President of the European Council. Therefore, a crucial political year lies ahead. What does the political landscape in Europe look like one year before this major electoral event?

Müller, M., Jacques Delors Centre, Hertie School, 2022.

In May 2024, the European Parliament will be directly elected for the tenth time. After the Conference on the Future of Europe, it is the next big test for supranational democracy. In this policy brief, Dr Manuel Müller offers an overview of what to expect from the election: On which date will it take
place (and why does that matter)? What electoral law will apply? Will the lead candidate procedure come into play again? How are the European parties
doing in the polls? And of course: What will happen with voter turnout?

Müller, M., Institut für Europäische Politik, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2020.

Compared to most other democratic systems, the EU is characterised by an unusually large degree of inter-institutional entanglement and the lack of a real parliamentary opposition. Rather than pacifying political conflicts, this strong consensualism weakens accountability, makes European elections less meaningful, and ultimately emboldens populist anti-EU parties.