Cevik, S., IMF Working Papers, (253), 2023.

Rapid advances in digital technology are revolutionizing the financial landscape. The rise of fintech has the potential to make financial systems more efficient and competitive and broaden financial inclusion. With greater technological complexity, however, fintech also poses potential systemic risks. In this paper, I use a novel dataset to trace the development of fintech (excluding cryptocurrencies) and empirically assess its impact on financial stability in a panel of 198 countries over the period 2012–2020. The analysis provides interesting insights into how fintech correlates with financial stability: (i) the impact magnitude and statistical significance of fintech depend on the type of instrument (digital lending vs. digital capital raising); (ii) the overall effect of all fintech instruments together turns out to be negative because of the overwhelming share of digital lending in total, albeit statistically insignificant; and (iii) while digital capital raising is estimated to have a positive effect on financial stability in advanced economies, its effect is negative in developing countries. Fintech is still small compared to traditional institutions, but rapidly expanding in riskier segments of the financial sector and creating new challenges for policymakers.

Elekdag, S.A., Emrullahu, D. and Ben Naceur, S., IMF Working Papers, (017), 2024.

Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, this paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side of the debate asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis). Using a curated databased covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry-, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship. Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.

Huang, Z., Lahreche, A., Saito, M., et al., IMF Working Papers, (069), 2024.

E-money development has important yet theoretically ambiguous consequences for monetary policy transmission, because nonbank deposit-taking e-money issuers (EMIs) (e.g., mobile network operators) can either complement or substitute banks. Case studies of e-money regulations point to complementarity of EMIs with banks, implying that the development of e-money could deepen financial intermediation and strengthen monetary policy transmission. The issue is further explored with panel data, on both monthly (covering 21 countries) and annual (covering 47 countries) frequencies, over 2001 to 2019. We use a two-way fixed effect estimator to estimate the causal effects of e-money development on monetary policy transmission. We find that e-money development has accompanied stronger monetary policy transmission (measured by the responsiveness of interest rates to the policy rate), growth in bank deposits and credit, and efficiency gains in financial intermediation (measured by the lending-to-deposit rate spread). Evidence is more pronounced in countries where e-money development takes off in a context of limited financial inclusion. This paper highlights the potential benefits of e-money development in strengthening monetary policy transmission, especially in countries with limited financial inclusion.

Feyen, E.H.B., Natarajan, H., Saal, M., World Bank Group, 2023.

This report explores the implications of fintech and the digital transformation of financial services for market outcomes on one side, and regulation and supervision, on the other, and how these interact.

BIS Working Papers (1178), 2024.

Advances in digital technology have transformed people's lives in recent decades. But large swathes of the financial system are stuck in the past. Many transactions still take days to complete and rely on time-consuming clearing, messaging and settlement systems and physical paper trails. Improving the functioning of the financial system is thus an important public policy objective. But building a financial system fit for the future requires a vision for what we want to achieve. We propose the concept of the "Finternet" as a vision for the future financial system: multiple financial ecosystems interconnected with each other – much like the internet.

Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), World Economic Forum, 2024.

This report, a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, reveals new data on the rapidly evolving fintech ecosystem and the opportunities fintech activities are offering traditionally underserved consumers and businesses. With global fintechs reporting customer growth rates averaging above 50%, the report delves into an expanding industry characterized by innovation and regulatory complexities. Research findings are based on a global survey of over 200 fintech companies across five retail-facing industry verticals and six regions. The publication presents actionable insights to public and private sector decision-makers to facilitate further responsible growth of the fintech industry.

OECD, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers, (9), OECD Publishing, 2023.

The rapid acceleration in the pace of AI innovation in recent years and the advent of content generating capabilities (Generative AI or GenAI) have increased interest in AI innovation in finance, in part due to the user-friendliness and intuitive interface of GenAI tools. The use of AI in financial markets involving full end-to-end automation without any human intervention remains largely at development phase, but its wider deployment could amplify risks already present in financial markets and give rise to new challenges. This paper presents recent evolutions in AI in finance and potential risks and discusses whether policy makers may need to reinforce policies and strengthen protection against these risks.

Shabsigh, G., Boukherouaa, E.B., IMF Fintech Notes (006), 2023.

In recent years, technological advances and competitive pressures have fueled rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector, and this adoption is set to accelerate with the recent emergence of generative AI (GenAI). GenAI is a significant leap forward in AI technology that enhances its utility for financial institutions that have been quick at adapting it to a broad range of applications. However, there are risks inherent in the AI technology and its application in the financial sector, including embedded bias, privacy concerns, outcome opaqueness, performance robustness, unique cyberthreats, and the potential for creating new sources and transmission channels of systemic risks. GenAI could aggravate some of these risks and bring about new types or risks as well, including for financial sector stability. This paper provides early insights into GenAI’s inherent risks and their potential impact on the financial sector.

Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance [CCAF] and World Bank, World Economic Forum, 2020.

This global study seeks to assess how financial technology firms (FinTechs) have been impacted by COVID-19, and how they are responding to the resultant challenges and opportunities. The study is a joint initiative of the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, the World Bank Group and the World Economic Forum. This research was supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, and the Ministry of Finance of Luxembourg.

Ben Naceur, S., Candelon, B., Elekdag, S.A., et al., IMF Working Papers, (239), 2023.

This paper examines how the growing presence of FinTech firms affects the performance of traditional financial institutions. The findings point to a negative impact on profitability, primarily due to a reduction in interest income and a rise in operational costs. Although established financial institutions have tried to diversify their revenue streams, these efforts have proven inadequate to offset the losses associated with increased competition from FinTech firms. Our study also reveals that various FinTech business models, such as Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending and Balance Sheet lending, have varying effects on financial institutions. Cooperative banks experience more significant profit deterioration under both models, whereas (larger) commercial banks appear to benefit from partnerships with P2P platforms, as evidenced by an increase in non-interest income. Furthermore, the findings suggest that FinTech presence has a disproportionately larger adverse effect on banks in countries with more competitive, profitable, and developed financial systems. Interestingly, however, traditional financial institutions in countries with stronger regulatory frameworks appear to benefit from the expanding influence of FinTech firms.

Cevik, S., IMF Working Papers, (020), 2024.

The rise of fintech is revolutionizing the financial landscape, with products and companies advancing innovative technologies to improve and automate financial services. In this paper, I use a novel dataset and implement a dynamic modelling to investigate the relationship between fintech and economic growth in a panel of 198 countries over the period 2012–2020. This cross-country approach—utilizing direct measures of fintech and dealing with potential endogeneity—provides interesting empirical insights. First, the impact magnitude and statistical significance of fintech on real GDP per capita growth depend on the type of instrument (digital lending vs. digital capital raising). While digital lending has a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth, digital capital raising has a large but insignificant effect.

OECD, OECD Business and Finance Policy Papers, (36), OECD Publishing, 2023.

Open finance enables the sharing of, and access to, financial sector data. This paper analyses the benefits, risks and implementation challenges of Open finance and provides policy recommendations for the safe and successful implementation of such data-sharing frameworks in finance. It considers the impacts of providing access to customers’ financial data and how to do this responsibly and safely, with due consideration for data privacy. The paper also discusses other consumer safeguards, notably related to consent and liability. Finally, it considers whether there is a need to support the development of technical infrastructure to promote data interoperability.

Arnold, N.G., Claveres, G., Frie, J., IMF Working Papers, (146), 2024.

Relative to the US, productivity growth and investment in R&D in lagging in the EU, where it is more difficult to finance and scale up promising, innovative startups. Many of the most successful EU startups move elsewhere for financing, causing the EU to lose out on both the direct growth benefits and positive spillovers from these innovative firms. The EU could nurture innovative startups by accelerating the development of its venture capital (VC) ecosystem. Reducing regulatory frictions, especially ones that deter pensions funds and insurers from investing in VC, combined with well-designed tax incentives for R&D investments could help accelerate the development of the VC sector. These and other key CMU initiatives, such as the consolidation of stock markets and reforming and harmonizing insolvency regimes, will take time. Given the urgency to boost innovation, giving public financial institutions like the European Investment Fund a more active and expanded role in kickstarting VC markets where needed and in familiarizing investors with the VC asset class can be a helpful interim step.

OECD, OECD Publishing, 2023.

The FinTech sector is a nascent market in the Czech Republic, with only around one hundred regulated or unregulated FinTech firms. This report analyses the Czech FinTech ecosystem and identifies possible hurdles to innovative development. The report also provides recommendations for designing a regulatory sandbox tailored to the country’s specificities and which could help alleviate some of the impediments to FinTech development. A sandbox could enhance the Czech authorities’ understanding of the impact of innovative mechanisms on financial activities, and enable supervisors to better monitor and ensure compliance of FinTech activities. It could also enhance communication between firms and authorities through targeted dialogue and customised guidance.