European Research Council Executive Agency (European Commission), European Research Executive Agency (European Commission), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

The EU was established with the aim to provide common ground, literally and metaphorically, for its members to thrive in a stable and secure environment, being ‘united in diversity.’ The emergence of violent extremism, populism and radicalisation undermines European cohesion, unsettling the Union’s foundations and fostering insecurity among its citizens.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union, Fiott, D. and Simón, L., EU defence after Versailles – An agenda for the future – In-depth analysis, European Parliament, 2023.

This analysis focuses on developments in European Union (EU) security and defence since the Versailles Summit, held on 10–11 March 2022. It shows how the Union’s response to Russia’s war on Ukraine has unleashed and spurred on a range of operational, industrial and political initiatives that will influence security and defence policy for the years to come. The EU is presently trying to grapple with the growing relevance of deterrence and defence while affirming the importance of projecting stability beyond Europe’s borders. In this study, we argue that the next institutional cycle offers an opportunity to balance those priorities. We advance two sets of recommendations: a) the need to rebalance the focus of EU defence policy instruments such as EDF, PESCO or EPF towards generating the skillsets, technologies and capabilities required for deterrence, and strengthen EU-NATO relations; and b) the need to rethink the EU’s approach to external crisis management and adapt to the requirements of non-permissive political and operational environments.

European Commission, Directorate-General for International Partnerships, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

The EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF for Africa) was set up to support the most vulnerable and marginalised people, including refugees, internally displaced people, migrants and members of host communities. Over the last 8 years, it has provided great momentum for a coordinated response by the European Union, its Member States and other donors to multiple challenges across the Sahel and Lake Chad, Horn of Africa and North of Africa regions. In 2023, the three regions of the EUTF for Africa were marked by political crisis - with regime changes in the Sahel region – and armed conflict, like in the case of Sudan where in April violence broke out between Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

European Commission: Directorate-General for International Partnerships, EU emergency trust fund for Africa – 2023 annual report, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

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The EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF for Africa) was set up to support the most vulnerable and marginalised people, including refugees, internally displaced people, migrants and members of host communities. Over the last 8 years, it has provided great momentum for a coordinated response by the European Union, its Member States and other donors to multiple challenges across the Sahel and Lake Chad, Horn of Africa and North of Africa regions. In 2023, the three regions of the EUTF for Africa were marked by political crisis - with regime changes in the Sahel region – and armed conflict, like in the case of Sudan where in April violence broke out between Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Antoni Sastre Bel, European University Institute, 2024.

Since 2007, the EU has been investing heavily in advancing peace and security in the African continent, by supporting the African peace and security architecture institutions. Until now most of this support has been concentrated in crisis management and defence capacity building. Nevertheless this approach hasn’t delivered the effects it intended. As a consequence, other conflict prevention and resolution instruments that could be more cost-efficient and less coercive, such as peace mediation, have been under-exploited. In front of this conundrum, this thesis researches on the EU engagement in conflict mediation in sub-Saharan Africa, in order to identify the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for improvement. For this purpose, it uses the analytical framework of ‘multi-mediation’ developed by Davis (2018) and applies it into the cases studies of the Ethiopia-Tigray War and the current conflict in Sudan. After analysing them, the research concludes presenting how the EU is well-equipped to perform mediation support in the African continent and recommends to reinforce its normative approach to mediation.

European Parliament, 2024.

Almost two years since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU military assistance under the European Peace Facility (EPF) is lagging. The special European Council meeting of 1 February 2024 invited the Council to agree by early March 2024 to amend the regulation establishing the EPF, in order to increase its financial ceiling.

European Commission: Directorate-General for International Partnerships, Guidance for resilience analysis, Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Complex and prolonged crises – where multiple risks converge with weak economic, governance, political, security and social systems and diminishing natural resources – require structured, long-term and resilience-focused approaches. Such crises can be either natural disasters or human-engineered conflicts. Based on this understanding, the European Union (EU) has, over the last decade, developed a robust policy framework anchoring resilience as one of the main priorities of the EU Global Strategy. This move is in line with current international frameworks such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

European Commission: Directorate-General for International Partnerships, Guidance notes on conflict sensitivity no. 13 on – Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) – A complement to the 2015 EU Staff Handbook on Operating in Situations of Conflict and Fragility, Tools and Methods Series, reference document no. 17, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This document aims to provide thematic guidance on how to take into account key conflict sensitivity issues when supporting processes related to Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR). It presents general background as well as key conflict sensitivity dimensions when designing or managing support of DDR. The questions at the end of the document draw attention to specific conflict sensitivity considerations, including measures to address and prevent conflict risks and risks of doing harm. They may be used in various discussions, particularly during the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of DDR-related support or programmes. This note should be read in conjunction with the rest of the EU’s thematic guidance notes on Conflict Sensitivity (Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding; Gender; Democracy and Human Rights; Working with National Actors; Working with International Actors; Economic Development and Employment; Climate Change, Environment and Natural Resources; Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture; COVID 19; Education), as well as the new Guidance Note on SSR.

European Commission: Directorate-General for International Partnerships, Guidance notes on conflict sensitivity no. 14 on – Security Sector Reform (SSR) – A complement to the 2015 EU Staff Handbook on Operating in Situations of Conflict and Fragility, Tools and Methods Series, reference document no. 17, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This document aims to provide thematic guidance on how to consider key conflict sensitivity issues when supporting processes related to Security Sector Reform (SSR). The questions at the end of the document draw attention to specific conflict sensitivity considerations, calling for measures to mitigate conflict risks and risks of doing harm. These may be used in the various discussions, particularly during the design and appraisal phase of SSR support and other interventions in support of (actors in) the security sector of partner countries. This note should be read in conjunction with the rest of the EU’s thematic guidance notes on Conflict Sensitivity (Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding; Gender; Democracy and Human Rights; Working with National Actors; Working with International Actors; Economic Development and Employment; Climate Change, Environment and Natural Resources; Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture; COVID 19; Education), as well as the new Guidance Note on Conflict Sensitive DDR.

European Commission: Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO), van der Velden, M., Enria, N., Furci, V., Esteves, S. et al., Interim evaluation of the implementation of Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, 2017-2022, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This interim evaluation of the implementation and performance of Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) was commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO). The UCPM aims to strengthen cooperation between European Union (EU) Member States and Participating States on civil protection in order to improve prevention, preparedness and response to disasters. The evaluation assessed the effectiveness, relevance, efficiency, coherence, and EU added value of the UCPM, identified lessons, and provided strategic and operational recommendations.

European University Institute and Akita, H., The looming risk of World War III, European University Institute, 2024.

This paper analyses the risk of a Third World War. Although conflicts are taking place in many parts of the world, many people may not feel there is much of a threat. However, if one observes reality dispassionately, the view that the risk of a Third World War is looming is not necessarily unrealistic. First, let us look back at the history of the great wars mainly in Europe since the end of the 18th century: the Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, the Franco-Prussian War, the First World War and the Second World War. The longest interwar period was 43 years between the Franco-Prussian War and the First World War, this is followed by 39 years between the Napoleon War and the Crimean War. Conversely, the shortest interwar period was that between the Franco-Prussian War and the First World War, which lasted only 14 years. By comparison, since the Second World War ended in 1945, the international community has not experienced a major war for almost 80 years, despite the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Looking back at modern history, the 80 years of peace after 1945 should be considered unusual.

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, Lazarou, E., Bassot, E. and Stanicek, B., Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide – Normandy index 2024, Bassot, E.(editor), European Parliament, 2024.

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Conflict is rarely confined to the geographical space in which wars take place. The increasingly global effects – human, material and political – of wars and conflicts make a view of the level of threats to peace, security and democracy around the world more important than ever. The 'Normandy Index' has presented an annual measurement of these threats since the 2019 Normandy Peace Forum. The results of the 2024 exercise suggest the level of threats to peace is the highest since the Index began, confirming declining trends in global security resulting from conflict, geopolitical rivalry, growing militarisation and hybrid threats. The findings of the 2024 exercise draw on data compiled in 2023-2024 to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's performance against a range of predetermined threats – across countries and regions.

European Union Institute for Security Studies and Bressan, S., The power and limits of data for peace – Improving the EU conflict early warning system for more effective prevention, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

This Brief analyses the EU warning system’s contribution to conflict prevention and discusses ways to strengthen it. The first section examines the factors that contribute to the success of the system. The second section suggests how the system and the EU’s overall prevention approach can be further improved. Both sections hold lessons for developers of risk assessment and warning systems within and outside EU institutions. The Brief concludes by arguing that the European External Action Service (EEAS) should focus on expanding the methodological toolbox to include innovative foresight approaches. Together with the EU Commission, Member States and other partners, it should strengthen the link between warning and action to make sure analyses translate into meaningful, coordinated prevention.

European University Institute and Condratiuc, M., Strengthening EU-Moldova cooperation – Challenges and perspectives in the transnistrian settlement process, European University Institute, 2024.

This paper focuses on the importance of the negotiation process for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict and the potential for Moldova's EU membership as the main policy options in preventing an escalation of the conflict and in preserving peace and security in Europe. It provides an overview of the current condition of the existing negotiating formats and their capacity to address the issues hindering the interaction of Chisinau and Tiraspol in the negotiation process. It also explores the possibilities of resetting and adapting certain formats in the light of Moldova's progress in the process of integration into the European Union, in order to focus more on peace and security issues that threaten regional stability. The text highlights the areas where Moldova needs more EU support and expertise to bring the Transnistrian region back into the state's legal framework, thereby creating favourable conditions for conflict resolution and subsequently for Moldova's reintegration and EU integration processes.

Sami James Harju, European University Institute, 2024.

The following attempts to determine the extent to which formulating a rational endgame in Ukraine might benefit from the presented conceptual framing of a sufficiently just peace. While Ukraine must be supported in dictating the terms of its own future in the face of malevolence, the current trajectory of the conflict forbodes no good outcome for anyone. The gulf between the generally held maximal conception of an ideal justice and any pragmatic outlook of peace presents a dangerously incompatible normative contrast. The proposed framework utilises relevant principles from both just war and just peace theory, bringing them back to reality through an enhanced utility in contextualisation.